Barbara Ng · Luxury Strategy
Issue · August 2026

H1 2026 results · seven groups · from their July releases

Luxury isn’t recovering evenly. Some houses are winning. The rest are still fixing.

LVMH, Kering, Hermès, Prada, Zegna, Brunello Cucinelli and Moncler — read from each group’s own first-half report.

+13.3% Brunello Cucinelli
strongest growth
41% Hermès
operating margin
+11% / +2% Hermès Japan /
Asia ex-Japan

Some brands are running. Some are steady. Some are still fixing themselves.

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01 · The houses

Who grew — and why it matters.

Figures are company-reported and directional — not a standardized peer comparison.

Tap a row to open

Brunello Cucinelli +13.3%

Still the clearest absolute-luxury story in the set — strong everywhere that matters, and confident enough to raise the full-year outlook.

€749MH1 revenue
+13.3%Constant currency
17.1%EBIT margin
10–11%Raised FY guide

Americas +20.6% · Asia +14.1% · retail +19.3% at constant currency. Spring/summer 2027 orders described as excellent.

From the floor

The order book is the tell. Cucinelli is one of the last houses where wholesale is an asset, not a liability — small, curated doors that behave like ambassadors. It also has almost no travel retail exposure, so little of this growth looks like tourist beta. Locals are buying — and the spring orders were already written months ago.

Ermenegildo Zegna Group +9.3%

The own-store model is doing the heavy lifting — wholesale is being cut on purpose, and the customer relationship is paying off.

€987MH1 revenue
+9.3%Organic growth
+11%Q2 organic
86%Own-store share

Own-store sales +17.3% in Q2. Americas Q2 +20%. ZEGNA brand led; Thom Browne wholesale −29.5% as they tidy the channel.

From the floor

A 29.5% wholesale cut at Thom Browne is a decision, not a slide, and the cost lands a year before the benefit. In APAC, converting its distributor and franchise doors to owned is a multi-year P&L drag. The number to respect isn’t the 9.3% — it’s Q2 accelerating to +11% while cutting the channel.

Moncler Group +9%

Solid numbers overall — Asia and Stone Island did the heavy lifting; Europe slipped and Moncler itself slowed in Q2.

€1.29BH1 revenue
+9%Constant currency
19.0%EBIT margin
+11%Stone Island

Moncler brand +9% · about 85% direct sales. Group Q2 slowed to +5%. Moncler Europe Q2 −8%. Stone Island Americas Q2 +49%.

From the floor

Europe didn’t slow because people stopped wanting Moncler — it slowed because too many doors still lean on tourist traffic. Think Montenapoleone and the Swiss resorts. When tourist flows softened — especially from Asia — those stores had thinner local books to fall back on. You can’t fix that in a quarter.

Hermès International +6%

Not the fastest grower — and it doesn’t need to be. The model still prints cash, protects margin, and grows where demand is real.

€8.2BH1 revenue
+6%Constant currency
41%Operating margin
+18%Free cash flow

Leather Goods +10% · Americas +15% · Japan +11% · Europe ex-France +9% · Asia ex-Japan +2%. 25th leather workshop opened in Loupes. Perfume & Beauty −4%.

From the floor

Leather is the real Hermès story — not Beauty’s soft patch. Don’t confuse a small métier wobble with brand heat. Hermès is still growing where it controls the product and the door.

Prada Group +5%

The brands still have heat — especially in the Americas — but Versace adds sales and takes a bite out of the margin story.

€3.05BH1 revenue
+5% / +16%Without / with Versace
17.4%Adj. EBIT margin
€305MVersace H1

+5% is the clean peer read (without Versace). Margin now 17.4%, down from 22.6%. Americas organic +17%. Prada retail +3.3% H1 / +6.3% Q2. Miu Miu retail +2.5% H1 / +2.6% Q2.

From the floor

The damage isn’t Versace’s product, it’s Versace’s channel: an inherited wholesale book and outlet exposure. Prada has done this repair before, on itself, between 2018 and 2021. It isn’t a one-half fix. Watch net door count, not sales. Miu Miu is still growing — just more quietly after last year’s +40% sprint. A soft landing, not a stall.

LVMH Moët Hennessy +2%

Back to “growth” on paper — but +2% organic is thin. Jewelry and Sephora are carrying it; fashion and leather are only just above water, with volume-mix roughly flat.

€38.6BH1 revenue
+2%Organic growth
22.5%Operating margin
+9%Watches & Jewelry

Reported sales −3% on currency. Q2 +3% organic (+4% ex-Middle East). Fashion & Leather −1% H1 / +1% Q2 — management said prices were moderate and volume-mix was roughly flat. Selective Retailing +5%. Net profit roughly flat at €5.7B.

From the floor

Don’t celebrate +2%. Fashion and leather’s Q2 +1% came with moderate prices and roughly flat volume-mix — a toe above zero, not a rebound. Jewellery holds because it discounts less and sells to locals. The Middle East drag isn’t “people don’t want LVMH” — it’s travel into that region getting disrupted.

Kering +1%

Growth is back after three years — that matters — but +1% is thin, and Gucci is still shrinking. Jewelry, eyewear and a cleaner balance sheet are carrying the repair.

€7.22BH1 revenue
+1%Comparable growth
12.8%Operating margin
€3.3BNet debt

Gucci −5% H1 / −2% Q2; own-store retail −6% H1. Jewelry +20% · Eyewear +8%. Beauté sold to L’Oréal for €4B in March — debt down €4.7B since Dec 2025. 84 net store closures in the half. A start, not a victory lap.

From the floor

The store cut is a real clean-up — lease exits, restructuring costs, and network write-downs. You feel the cost this year; the cleaner margin shows up next year. On Gucci: Kering indicated traffic remained under pressure, with higher average tickets and conversion helping offset weaker visitation — price and spend, not footfall. Shut doors can also make the remaining network look healthier on paper. Judge it on what each open store actually sells.

Source · Company H1 2026 releases · bars scaled to Cucinelli = 100%

02 · Where the money moved

Growth followed residents and currency — not a broad China rebound.

Americas strong where locals are buying. Japan on local demand, with a yen backdrop. China steady, not the engine. Europe: local books hold; tourist doors fall.

Americas · leading

Double-digit

at houses that are winning

Hermès +15% · Zegna +20% organic · Cucinelli +20.6%

Japan · surging

+11%

Hermès Japan — locals, with a yen backdrop

Moncler Asia +19% (Japan & Korea strong)

Greater China · holding

+2%

Hermès Asia ex-Japan — sample, not market

Zegna Greater China +6.8%

Europe · split

+/−

local books hold · tourist doors fall

Hermès Europe ex-France +9% · Moncler Europe −4%

03 · What’s working

Direct is not enough.

Every brand here has gone direct. Not every brand knows its customer. Owning the store is the easy part — local client books and full-price discipline are the hard part.

04 · What to watch next

Five questions for the second half

These tell you if recovery is real — or just a better-looking repair job.

01

Does Gucci’s retail turn — or does the reset have to go harder?

02

Can LVMH’s fashion and leather keep climbing without discounting — or was Q2’s +1% just a toe above zero?

03

Is America’s strength durable into the holidays — or was H1 catch-up?

04

Does China stay flat-steady — or start to pull again?

05

After wholesale cuts — do prices hold, or does the brand just get smaller?

05 · Close

Control beats size.

The second half will show who is running a brand and who is explaining one — real local clients, price held after a wholesale cut, tourist traffic treated as traffic, not demand.

By year-end, the question won’t be who grew fastest. It will be who turned control into selling power.

Barbara Ng
H1 2026 Luxury Brief · sourced from group IR releases